CLE @ JAX

Browns

0-1

Jaguars

1-0

Final

Pregame model pick

JAX 66.3%

Correct · ATS loss

Low

Model spread: JAX -5.5
Model total: 41.6
ATS pick: CLE +7; -1.3 pt edge
Total pick: Pass; +1.1 pt edge

Market · DraftKings

CLE spread+8.5

CLE ML+360

Over40.5

JAX spread-8.5

JAX ML-470

Under40.5

Why the model likes JAX

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

Market priorhelps JAX+5.3 pts · +15.0%
Opening line JAX -7, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games
Home fieldhelps JAX+0.4 pts · +1.2%
JAX at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

JAX win probability

GameLens: 66%
Market: 79%
Difference: -13%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

100.0% JAX win probability

JAX aboveCLE below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

defenseQ1 12:17
D.Watson pass short left intended for J.Jeudy INTERCEPTED by F.Oluokun [D.Hamilton] at JAX 19. F.Oluokun to JAX 41 for 22 yards (E.Jenkins).
WPA +9.5%EPA -10.00
touchdownQ1 8:11
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass deep right to P.Washington for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN [M.Collins]. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
WPA +6.1%EPA +4.01
touchdownQ1 1:42
T.Lawrence pass short middle to J.Cameron for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
WPA +1.5%EPA +1.27
defenseQ2 8:38
D.Watson pass short left to K.Concepcion to CLV 45 for 5 yards (V.Miller) [T.Walker]. FUMBLES (V.Miller), touched at CLV 46, RECOVERED by JAX-J.Hines-Allen at CLV 44.
WPA +1.5%EPA -4.65
defenseQ1 0:38
(Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at CLV 26 for -9 yards (sack split by J.Hines-Allen and T.Walker). FUMBLES (J.Hines-Allen) [J.Hines-Allen], and recovers at CLV 27.
WPA +0.8%EPA -1.87
touchdownQ2 6:18
(Shotgun) T.Lawrence pass short middle to B.Strange for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. C.Little extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Matiscik, Holder-L.Cooke.
WPA +0.8%EPA +1.61

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

No player prop lines posted yet.

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Cleveland Browns

deep left10/1 · 0 yds

deep middle10/1 · 0 yds

deep right11/1 · 25 yds

short left97/9 · 65 yds

short middle33/3 · 24 yds

short right74/7 · 40 yds

Line of scrimmage

22 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Jacksonville Jaguars

deep left22/2 · 54 yds

deep middle0—

deep right43/4 · 60 yds

short left66/6 · 67 yds

short middle43/4 · 29 yds

short right54/5 · 35 yds

Line of scrimmage

21 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-call model: 61/105 (58%) run/pass correct

Q4 0:00JAX10–34
END GAME
WPA (home)+0.1%
Home WP100.0%
Q4 0:34JAX3rd & 12 at JAX 2810–34
N.Mullens kneels to JAX 27 for -1 yards.
EPA+0.31
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 68%✓correct
Q4 1:03JAX2nd & 11 at JAX 2910–34
N.Mullens kneels to JAX 28 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.83
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 88%✓correct
Q4 1:45JAX1st & 10 at JAX 3010–34
N.Mullens kneels to JAX 29 for -1 yards.
EPA-0.84
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 93%✓correct
Q4 1:52CLE10–34
A.Szmyt kicks 58 yards from CLV 35 to JAX 7. J.Cameron to JAX 30 for 23 yards (E.Mascarenas-Arnold; C.Ryan).
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 1:52CLE2nd & 5 at JAX 46Score10–34
Denzel Boston 46 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Andre Szmyt Kick).
EPA+4.35
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards46
PredictedPass 95%✓correct
Q4 2:00CLE2nd & 5 at JAX 463–34
Two-Minute Warning
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 2:35CLE1st & 10 at CLE 493–34
(Shotgun) Q.Judkins left guard to JAX 46 for 5 yards (D.Gardeck).
EPA+3.23
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards5
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
Q4 2:44CLE1st & 10 at CLE 333–34
D.Watson pass short right to Q.Judkins ran ob at CLV 49 for 16 yards (J.Tavai).
EPA+1.15
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards16
Air zoneshort right
TargetQ.Judkins
PredictedPass 89%✓correct
Q4 3:22CLE2nd & 1 at CLE 303–34
(Shotgun) Q.Judkins left guard to CLV 33 for 3 yards (A.Regis; J.Tavai).
EPA+0.44
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedPass 84%×incorrect
Q4 4:03CLE1st & 10 at CLE 213–34
(Shotgun) D.Watson up the middle to CLV 30 for 9 yards (B.Combs).
EPA+0.43
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards9
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
Q4 4:39CLE1st & 10 at CLE 113–34
K.Concepcion right end to CLV 21 for 10 yards (C.Ransaw).
EPA+0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards10
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
Q4 4:39CLE1st & 10 at CLE 113–34
Official Timeout at 04:39.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 4:47JAX4th & 5 at JAX 393–34
L.Cooke punts 50 yards to CLV 11, Center-R.Matiscik, fair catch by D.Boston.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 5:39JAX3rd & 5 at JAX 393–34
(Shotgun) B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 39 for no gain (S.Williams).
EPA-7.27
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards0
PredictedRun 55%✓correct
Q4 6:24JAX2nd & 4 at JAX 403–34
B.Tuten up the middle to JAX 39 for -1 yards (J.Verse).
EPA-0.83
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards-1
PredictedRun 86%✓correct
Q4 7:10JAX1st & 10 at JAX 343–34
B.Tuten right tackle to JAX 40 for 6 yards (J.Verse).
EPA+0.05
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards6
PredictedRun 88%✓correct
Q4 7:29JAX2nd & 3 at JAX 293–34
PENALTY on CLV-J.Verse, Neutral Zone Infraction, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 29 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 8:12JAX1st & 10 at JAX 223–34
B.Tuten left tackle to JAX 29 for 7 yards (G.Delpit; C.Schwesinger).
EPA+0.17
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards7
PredictedRun 88%✓correct
Q4 8:12JAX1st & 10 at JAX 223–34
Official Timeout at 08:12.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 8:22CLE4th & 4 at JAX 163–34
(Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at JAX 22 for -6 yards (B.Combs).
EPA-9.71
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
PredictedPass 97%✓correct
Q4 9:06CLE3rd & 3 at JAX 153–34
(Shotgun) D.Watson sacked at JAX 16 for -1 yards (J.Hines-Allen).
EPA-0.98
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
PredictedPass 95%✓correct
Q4 9:45CLE2nd & 6 at JAX 183–34
Q.Judkins right guard to JAX 15 for 3 yards (A.Johnson; V.Miller).
EPA-0.32
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedPass 89%×incorrect
Q4 10:28CLE1st & 10 at JAX 223–34
Q.Judkins up the middle to JAX 18 for 4 yards (J.Hines-Allen; M.Dickerson).
EPA-0.21
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards4
PredictedPass 87%×incorrect
Q4 10:44CLE1st & 10 at JAX 223–34
Official Timeout at 10:44.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 10:50CLE4th & 6 at JAX 293–34
(Shotgun) D.Watson scrambles left end to JAX 22 for 7 yards (C.Ransaw).
EPA+4.13
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards7
PredictedPass 97%×incorrect
Q4 10:50CLE4th & 1 at JAX 243–34
(Run formation) PENALTY on CLV-B.Whiteheart, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 24 - No Play.
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Q4 11:29CLE3rd & 2 at JAX 253–34
(Shotgun) R.Sanders up the middle to JAX 24 for 1 yard (J.Hines-Allen).
EPA-0.72
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards1
PredictedPass 84%×incorrect
Q4 12:15CLE2nd & 7 at JAX 303–34
(Shotgun) D.Watson pass short left to R.Sanders to JAX 25 for 5 yards (J.Lewis; B.Combs).
EPA-0.06
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards5
Air zoneshort left
TargetR.Sanders
PredictedPass 92%✓correct
Q4 12:55CLE1st & 10 at JAX 333–34
(Shotgun) Q.Judkins right guard to JAX 30 for 3 yards (V.Miller; D.Hamilton).
EPA-0.33
WPA (home)0.0%
Home WP99.9%
Yards3
PredictedPass 86%×incorrect

Box score

Team stats	CLE	JAX
Total yards	272	360
Yards / play	5.6	6.4
Turnovers	2	0
3rd down	1-8	5-10
Red zone	0-2	2-2
Possession	26:09	33:51

Cleveland Browns

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
D.Watson	16/22	205	1	1

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
D.Watson	6	38	6.3
Q.Judkins	12	33	2.8
K.Concepcion	3	15	5.0
R.Sanders	1	1	1.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
D.Boston	2/4	59	1
K.Concepcion	4/5	43	0
J.Jeudy	2/4	26	0
R.Sanders	3/3	25	0
H.Fannin Jr.	2/3	21	0

Defense	TKL	SACK
C.Schwesinger	10	0
M.Graham	5	1
R.Hickman	8	0
T.Campbell	7	0

Jacksonville Jaguars

Passing	C/ATT	YDS	TD	INT
T.Lawrence	18/23	245	4	0

Rushing	CAR	YDS	YPC
B.Tuten	15	66	4.4
A.Abdullah	4	32	8.0
C.Rodriguez Jr.	6	23	3.8
T.Lawrence	2	3	1.5
T.Hunter	1	3	3.0

Receiving	REC/TGT	YDS	TD
P.Washington	5/6	83	1
J.Meyers	2/2	40	1
B.Thomas Jr.	3/3	40	0
B.Strange	2/3	23	1
B.Tuten	1/1	22	0

Defense	TKL	SACK	INT
V.Miller	10	1	0
J.Hines-Allen	5	1.5	0
F.Oluokun	4	0	1
T.Walker	2	1.5	0

Model breakdown

Why the model likes JAX

Model vs. market

Matchup Lens

Live win probability

Win probability

Key moments

Key moments

Highlights

Highlights

Player props

Player props

Passing target maps

Target maps

Play-by-play

Play-by-play

Box score

Box score

Cleveland Browns

Jacksonville Jaguars