gameLens

Commanders

0-1

22

Eagles

1-0

24

Final

Pregame model pick

PHI 63.2%

Correct · ATS win

Low
Model spread
PHI -4.5
Model total
46.1
ATS pick
WSH +5.5
-1.0 pt edge
Total pick
Pass
-0.4 pt edge
Market · DraftKings
WSH spread+6
WSH ML+195
Over43.5
PHI spread-6
PHI ML-238
Under43.5

Model breakdown

Why the model likes PHI

The biggest drivers of the projection, in points and win probability.

  • Market priorhelps PHI+4.1 pts · +11.9%

    Opening line PHI -5.5, weighted 75% while the sample is 0 games

  • Home fieldhelps PHI+0.4 pts · +1.2%

    PHI at home (1.7 pts)

Model vs. market

PHI win probability

GameLens
63%
Market
68%
Difference
-4%

Market probability comes from the moneyline with the sportsbook margin removed. This comparison is for analysis only. It is not betting advice.

Matchup Lens

The biggest unit-vs-unit advantages, from each side's season-to-date play.

Matchup edges appear once both teams have played.

Live win probability

Recomputed every play from score, field position, down, distance and time.

Win probability

100.0% PHI win probability

PHI aboveWSH below

Key moments

Biggest win-probability swings — estimated value of each play.

Key moments

Highlights

Touchdowns, big plays, defensive plays and clutch moments.

Highlights

Highlight clips post during and after the game.

Player props

Model projections vs. posted lines, tracked live.

Player props

Passing target maps

Where each offense threw this game, by depth and direction.

Target maps

Washington Commanders
deep left21/2 · 33 yds7% of targets
deep middle10/1 · 0 yds3% of targets
deep right40/4 · 0 yds13% of targets
short left64/6 · 16 yds20% of targets
short middle74/7 · 56 yds23% of targets
short right109/10 · 59 yds33% of targets
Line of scrimmage

30 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Philadelphia Eagles
deep left10/1 · 0 yds5% of targets
deep middle0—
deep right43/4 · 112 yds18% of targets
short left94/9 · 22 yds41% of targets
short middle32/3 · 55 yds14% of targets
short right54/5 · 5 yds23% of targets
Line of scrimmage

22 charted targets · deep = 15+ air yards

Play-by-play

EPA, win probability added and the model's pre-snap run/pass call for every play.

Play-by-play

Play-call model: 70/120 (58%) run/pass correct

  1. Q4 0:00PHI22–24

    END GAME

    WPA (home)+0.1%
    Home WP100.0%
  2. Q4 0:19PHI2nd & 11 at PHI 4722–24

    J.Hurts kneels to PHI 46 for -1 yards.

    EPA-1.81
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards-1
    PredictedPass 65%×incorrect
  3. Q4 1:00PHI1st & 10 at PHI 4822–24

    J.Hurts kneels to PHI 47 for -1 yards.

    EPA-0.84
    WPA (home)0.0%
    Home WP99.9%
    Yards-1
    PredictedPass 52%×incorrect
  4. Q4 1:01WSH22–24

    D.Stevens kicks onside 17 yards from WAS 35 to PHI 48. D.Smith (didn't try to advance) to PHI 48 for no gain.

    WPA (home)+35.2%
    Home WP99.9%
  5. Q4 1:01WSH1st & 10 at WSH 3522–24

    Timeout #1 by PHI at 01:01.

    WPA (home)-18.7%
    Home WP64.7%
  6. Q4 1:01WSH3rd & Goal at PHI 1Score22–24

    (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right to A.Williams for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Pass formation) TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. J.Daniels pass to J.Bates is complete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

    EPA+1.59
    WPA (home)+3.9%
    Home WP83.4%
    Yards1
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetA.Williams
    PredictedPass 62%✓correct
  7. Q4 1:12WSH2nd & Goal at PHI 116–24

    J.Daniels pass incomplete short right.

    EPA-0.70
    WPA (home)+2.7%
    Home WP79.5%
    Yards0
    PredictedPass 67%✓correct
  8. Q4 1:57WSH1st & Goal at PHI 416–24

    K.Allen up the middle to PHI 1 for 3 yards (J.Davis; B.Young).

    EPA-0.17
    WPA (home)-1.2%
    Home WP76.9%
    Yards3
    PredictedPass 84%×incorrect
  9. Q4 1:57WSH1st & 4 at PHI 416–24

    Two-Minute Warning

    WPA (home)+0.6%
    Home WP78.1%
  10. Q4 2:04WSH4th & 2 at PHI 1016–24

    (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right to T.McLaurin to PHI 4 for 6 yards (M.Epps).

    EPA+2.71
    WPA (home)-9.2%
    Home WP77.5%
    Yards6
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetT.McLaurin
    PredictedPass 63%✓correct
  11. Q4 2:04WSH4th & 2 at PHI 1016–24

    Timeout #2 by WAS at 02:04.

    WPA (home)+0.8%
    Home WP86.7%
  12. Q4 2:08WSH3rd & 2 at PHI 1016–24

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Daniels pass incomplete short middle to J.Bates (Z.Baun).

    EPA-0.13
    WPA (home)+10.3%
    Home WP85.9%
    Yards0
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetJ.Bates (inc)
    PredictedPass 59%✓correct
  13. Q4 2:36WSH2nd & 6 at PHI 1416–24

    (Shotgun) K.Allen up the middle to PHI 10 for 4 yards (Z.Baun; C.DeJean).

    EPA-0.19
    WPA (home)-4.9%
    Home WP75.6%
    Yards4
    PredictedPass 67%×incorrect
  14. Q4 3:15WSH1st & 10 at PHI 1816–24

    (Shotgun) K.Allen left guard to PHI 14 for 4 yards (J.Hunt; C.DeJean).

    EPA-0.21
    WPA (home)-0.6%
    Home WP80.5%
    Yards4
    PredictedPass 63%×incorrect
  15. Q4 4:13WSH2nd & 2 at PHI 2116–24

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Croskey-Merritt up the middle to PHI 19 for 2 yards (J.Carter). FUMBLES (J.Carter), recovered by WAS-J.Conerly at PHI 18.

    EPA+0.49
    WPA (home)+2.9%
    Home WP81.1%
    Yards3
    PredictedPass 53%×incorrect
  16. Q4 4:40WSH1st & 10 at PHI 2916–24

    (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short right to T.McLaurin to PHI 21 for 8 yards (C.DeJean; J.Carter).

    EPA+0.30
    WPA (home)-5.4%
    Home WP78.1%
    Yards8
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetT.McLaurin
    PredictedPass 63%✓correct
  17. Q4 4:48WSH2nd & 7 at PHI 4616–24

    (Shotgun) J.Daniels pass short left to S.Diggs pushed ob at PHI 29 for 17 yards (C.DeJean).

    EPA+1.77
    WPA (home)-3.9%
    Home WP83.6%
    Yards17
    Air zoneshort left
    TargetS.Diggs
    PredictedPass 75%✓correct
  18. Q4 5:31WSH1st & 10 at PHI 4916–24

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Croskey-Merritt right guard to PHI 46 for 3 yards (J.Campbell).

    EPA-0.33
    WPA (home)+1.5%
    Home WP87.5%
    Yards3
    PredictedPass 63%×incorrect
  19. Q4 5:57WSH1st & 10 at WSH 3716–24

    J.Daniels pass short right to A.Williams pushed ob at PHI 49 for 14 yards (Q.Mitchell).

    EPA+1.01
    WPA (home)-2.5%
    Home WP86.1%
    Yards14
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetA.Williams
    PredictedPass 63%✓correct
  20. Q4 6:02PHI16–24

    J.Elliott kicks 64 yards from PHI 35 to WAS 1. J.Lane to WAS 37 for 36 yards (A.Epenesa).

    WPA (home)-2.6%
    Home WP88.6%
  21. Q4 6:02PHI & Goal at WSH 1516–24

    Official Timeout at 06:02.

    WPA (home)+0.2%
    Home WP91.2%
  22. Q4 6:02PHI3rd & 6 at WSH 43Score16–24

    (Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short middle to D.Goedert for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Underwood, Holder-B.Mann.

    EPA+4.89
    WPA (home)+17.7%
    Home WP91.0%
    Yards43
    Air zoneshort middle
    TargetD.Goedert
    PredictedPass 79%✓correct
  23. Q4 6:56PHI2nd & 8 at WSH 4516–17

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) W.Shipley left guard to WAS 43 for 2 yards (J.Kinlaw; T.Settle).

    EPA-0.45
    WPA (home)-0.7%
    Home WP73.3%
    Yards2
    PredictedPass 63%×incorrect
  24. Q4 7:29PHI1st & 10 at WSH 4716–17

    (No Huddle) W.Shipley right tackle to WAS 45 for 2 yards (T.Settle; L.Chenal).

    EPA-0.46
    WPA (home)-1.8%
    Home WP74.1%
    Yards2
    PredictedRun 52%✓correct
  25. Q4 8:03PHI3rd & 18 at PHI 3116–17

    (Shotgun) J.Hurts scrambles up the middle to WAS 47 for 22 yards (A.Robertson).

    EPA+3.44
    WPA (home)+13.3%
    Home WP75.9%
    Yards22
    PredictedPass 85%×incorrect
  26. Q4 8:11PHI2nd & 18 at PHI 3116–17

    (Shotgun) J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.

    EPA-0.70
    WPA (home)-1.6%
    Home WP62.6%
    Yards0
    PredictedPass 63%✓correct
  27. Q4 8:11PHI2nd & 13 at PHI 3616–17

    (Shotgun) PENALTY on PHI-J.Mailata, False Start, 5 yards, enforced at PHI 36 - No Play.

    WPA (home)-2.4%
    Home WP64.2%
  28. Q4 8:50PHI1st & 10 at PHI 3916–17

    (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short right to S.Barkley to PHI 36 for -3 yards (N.Cross). The ball spot was assisted by replay.

    EPA-1.10
    WPA (home)-5.1%
    Home WP66.6%
    Yards-3
    Air zoneshort right
    TargetS.Barkley
    PredictedRun 52%×incorrect
  29. Q4 9:13PHI2nd & 4 at PHI 3216–17

    (Shotgun) S.Barkley right guard to PHI 39 for 7 yards (O.Oweh; J.Reaves).

    EPA+0.89
    WPA (home)+2.4%
    Home WP71.7%
    Yards7
    PredictedPass 52%×incorrect
  30. Q4 9:53PHI1st & 10 at PHI 2616–17

    (Shotgun) S.Barkley right tackle to PHI 32 for 6 yards (J.Magee; M.Sainristil).

    EPA+0.05
    WPA (home)+0.8%
    Home WP69.3%
    Yards6
    PredictedRun 52%✓correct

Box score

Box score

Team statsWSHPHI
Total yards295318
Yards / play4.46
Turnovers00
3rd down5-156-14
Red zone3-32-3
Possession33:2026:40

Washington Commanders

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.Daniels18/3416420
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
J.Croskey-Merritt16633.91
J.Daniels5316.20
R.White7223.10
K.Allen4164.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
A.Williams4/4641
S.Diggs4/9551
C.Okonkwo2/3160
T.McLaurin2/4140
J.Bates2/3130
DefenseTKLSACKINT
S.Styles410
F.Luvu410
N.Cross800
O.Oweh310

Philadelphia Eagles

PassingC/ATTYDSTDINT
J.Hurts14/2520330
RushingCARYDSYPCTD
S.Barkley15835.50
J.Hurts7466.60
W.Shipley242.00
T.Bigsby133.00
ReceivingREC/TGTYDSTD
D.Goedert4/5772
D.Wicks2/4731
D.Smith3/6530
W.Shipley1/180
S.Barkley1/2-30
DefenseTKLSACKINT
J.Campbell910
Z.Baun1200
C.DeJean800
J.Davis800